European Regional Development fund project (No. 1.1.1.1/16/A/260)

Wind is by far the major disturbance to European forests. Its impact is predicted to increase in future as a result of climatic changes: more storms will affect forests in a period with wet soil. Significant part of the storm damages can be prevented by proper forest management; however precise models predicting the impact of the particular activities on vulnerability of stand are needed. Several mechanistic models have been developed for this purpose (e.g. ForestGALES, HWIND); however, limited amount of data from large trees and trees on peat soils (22% of forest stands in Latvia, significant areas also in other countries), more vulnerable to the damage, had been used when constructing these models. Therefore, aim of our study is to develop decision support tool based on an understanding of the mechanical forces which cause wind damage to coniferous trees primarily on wet and drained peats soils.

The project is conceived as industrial (practical) research and all implemented activities correspond to forest sector. The research is interdisciplinary and is carried out in collaboration between specialists of forestry and environmental sciences (OECD 4.1. and 1.5.). The research is related to management activities and is in accordance with activities of Cabinet Regulations No 34 section 21.2 – collaboration project between research organization and merchant. The actions carried out within the project correspond to non‑core economic activities, which include research and transfer of research results through knowledge and technologies, without exclusiveness and discrimination. This is ensured primarily by publishing the results in scientific articles with emphasize open-access publications: altogether 11 publications (two more than planned) are published, additionally 2 are published in Scopus sources, but not indexed yet and 1 manuscript (rejected in one journal, improved)."

The main result is achieved: decision support tool (algorithm) that requires input data from the forest inventory and provides prediction of wind damage probability is created and the patent application (LVP2020000021) submitted (here). Additionally, to the planned, also the presence of root-rot and its impact on the tree wind stability has been assessed (published) and included in the tool. Wind climate and soil (transferred from forest types to soil groups important in relation to wind resistance) maps are created and included in the open-access publication (currently reviewers’ comments received) – thus will be made publically available. The tool can be used to evaluate climate change impact while selecting different wind climate and/or wet soils. Validation of the tool on the basis of the actual damages of 2005 cyclonic storm (information on the wind and impact published) demonstrates a clearly improved prediction accuracy.

The planned types and amount of distribution of the project results is ensured:

1. participation with presentation in 2 main international scientific conferences dedicated this research subject: IUFRO (working party 8.03.036) 8^th and 9^th International Wind and Trees Conferences (2017 and 2020); briefings in FORDISMAN (2017) and PROFOR (2019) research network meetings, organized in Latvia (participants from Fenoscandia and Baltic countries) and FORDISMAN (2018) meeting in Finland.
2. presentations in 2 seminars for the forest owners (project indirect target group) – in areas of Research Forests in Eastern and Western part of the country (2017) as well in seminar (2018) and conference (2019), and Days of Forest Science (2019), with participants from main forest manager and owner organizations and two Ministries. Additionally, project had provided a platform of development for its target group (scientific and research personnel, PhD students), establishing connections with other education and research institutions; one of the project participants (Māra Kitenberga) had defended the PhD thesis in 2019 (on natural disturbance).

The planed goals of the project – development of the tool and patent application, publications and other forms of result distribution to direct and indirect target groups, as well as scientific development of the involved personnel, had been achieved.